Growth Varies by Product and Geography. Slower Expansion Rates Likely Later this Year

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CUSTER AND CUSTER

View the full article in Global SMT & Packaging July issue. http://digital.trafalgarmedia.com/h/c/1203-global-smt-packaging

Business conditions have improved in 2017 but they vary by both product and geography.


Semiconductor shipments have been very strong with global growth predicted at 11.5% By WSTS (Chart 1) for total 2017. For the months of April 2017 vs. April 2016 semiconductor shipments were up 21.4% globally and a whopping 26.9% for N. America. Since N. American electronic equipment shipments were only up 4.6% it appears that the large domestic semiconductor increase was driven by overly optimistic ordering volumes. However increased chip pricing is also a likely factor as memory chips are seeing strong demand. Actual and feared memory shortages have driven their pricing up (Chart 2).


Semiconductor capital equipment revenues also surged (Chart 3). They were up 58% in 1Q’17 vs 1Q’16. Capital equipment business cycles have always been very volatile and 2017 is no exception. We expect SEMI equipment growth will ebb very soon but sellers of chip equipment have certainly enjoyed very strong demand in 1H’17.


Printed circuit board sales are also improving but seasonality seems to be a key driver. Year-on-year they appear to be on target for only a 2-3% increase thanks to higher laminate pricing being passed on to the buyers. PCBs do not see the same volatility as semiconductors and SEMI (and to a lesser extent PCB) capital equipment.


Looking forward the global PMI leading indicator remains in expansion territory (PMI>50) but the rate of manufacturing growth has slowed (Chart 5). And in May China moved back into contraction.


Chart 6 shows the 3/12 growth rate of the manufacturing PMI for various regions. In May most of the world was decelerating with only the Eurozone still expanding. Europe typically lags the other regions in its business cycle so slower global growth appears on the horizon.


2017 will be a good year but depending on products and geography this year’s growth may have already been “front end loaded.” This is especially true of capital equipment.

End Markets

MOBILE COMMUNICATIONS

• Smartphones sales grew 9.1% y/y to 380 million units in 1Q’17. –Gartner

• Smartphone shipment volumes are forecast to grow 3% y/y to 1.52 billion units in 2017 and then continue to expand at a 3.4% CAGR to 1.74 billion units in 2021. –IDC

• China accounted for 10 of top 14 leading smartphone suppliers in 2016 as global market share grew to 39%. –IC Insights

COMPUTERS & PERIPHERALS

• Personal computing devices (desktop, notebook, workstations and tablets) shipments are forecast to fall at 1.4% CAGR from 435 million units in 2016 to 405 million units in 2021. –IDC

• AIO (all in one) PC shipments dropped 1.7% y/y to 12.2 million units in 2016. –Digitimes Research

NETWORK EQUIPMENT

• Fiber-optic network equipment demand is estimated to be 50-60 million units in 2017. –SerComm

• Server shipments declined 4.2% to 2.6 million units in 1Q’17 as revenues fell 4.5% to $12.5 billion. –Gartner

AUTOMOTIVE

• OEM Infotainment market shipments value is expected to grow from estimated $24 billion for 32 million units to $31 billion for shipments of 38 million units in 2020. –Research in China

AUGMENTED AND VIRTUAL REALITY

• AR, VR and “everything in between” headset market is already approaching $3.4 Billion in 2017 and is expected to reach over 10 times that by 2027. –IDTechEx

• AR/VR headset shipments totaled 2.3 million units in 1Q’17 with expectations for triple-digit growth for 2017. –IDC

DISPLAYS/TELEVISIONS/ FLAT SCREENS

• Industrial display market is expected to grow at 6.2% CAGR from USD 4.1 billion in 2016 to USD 5.9 billion by 2022. –Markets and Markets

• Large format display market is expected to grow at 6.7% CAGR to USD 14.9 billion by 2023 from USD 9.5 billion in 2016. –MarketsandMarkets

• LCD TV shipments decreased 8.4% y/y to 44 million units in 1Q’17. –WitsView

• OLED TVs shipments are expected to reach 2 million units in 2017. –Digitimes

• TV shipments declined 4.7% y/y to 46.7 million units in 1Q’17. –IHS Markit

INTERNET OF THINGS

• Internet of Things spending is forecast to grow 16.7% y/y to just over $800 billion in 2017 and to nearly $1.4 trillion by 2021. –IDC

ROBOTS/AUTOMATION

• China’s industrial robot market demand value will be $72.5 billion in 2020, accounting for 40% of global market.

OTHER

• GPS tracking device market is growing at 12.9% CAGR to 2.9 billion USD by 2023. –MarketsandMarkets

• LED filament light bulb demand will increase from 250 million units in 2016 to 400-500 million units in 2017. –Digitimes

• Smart toys’ hardware and app content sales will grow from an estimated $4.9 billion in 2017 to $15.5 billion by 2022. –Juniper Research

• Wearables shipments increased 17.9% y/y to 24.7 million devices during 1Q’17. –IDC

EMS, ODM & Related Assembly Activity

European EMS companies’ revenues are expected to grow 4.6% from 27.4 billion euros ($30.7 billion) in 2016 to 32.1 billion euros ($35.9 billion) in 2020. –Reed Electronics Research

Medical sector contract electronic manufacturing market is expected to grow at 8.8% CAGR through 2022. –Market Research Future

Assel achieved ISO 13485 certification.

Benchmark Electronics relocated its corporate HQ from Angleton, Texas to Phoenix, Arizona area.

Boyce Technologies installed a SJ Inno Tech stencil printer with on board 3D SPI, a Mirae pick and place model MR20LP system and Xavis H-130 OCT X-Ray with full 3D CT.

Burton Industries added two Nordson YESTECH FX-940 ULTRA 3D AOI systems.

Cirtronics appointed former Senator Kelly Ayotte to its Board of Advisors.

Computrol rehired Farid Anani as VP of Operations.

Corintech installed a CyberOptics SQ3000 AOI system at its UK production center.

DELTEC added an XRHCount system from VisiConsult.

Exception EMS promoted: Steven Healings to Managing Director for UK manufacturing site, Noel Murphy, Group Financial Officer in UK and Mark O’Connor to VP, European Development, at Fabrinet.

Flex acquired AGM Automotive from Trive Capital.

Flying Test Systems added XJTAG boundary scan technology.

Foxconn/ Hon Hai

• has 60,000 robots installed at its global production lines.

• has been developing industrial internet applications in a bid to realize Industry 4.0-based smart factories.

• is building a precision-molding demonstration park and Amazon production center in Hengyang, Hunan province, China.

• is looking at locations in the U.S. to set up a flat screen production facility.

• plans to build a factory in Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust’s special economic zone and a production site in Bengaluru, India.

• set up an industrial IoT innovation R&D center in Wuhan City, China.

• discontinued iPad and iPhone assembly in Brazil.

Hotayi Electronics invested RM1 billion to build 250,000 SF facility in Batu Kawan Industrial Park.

Inovar is building a 100,000 SF facility at Utah State University Innovation Campus.

Integrated Micro-Electronics completed acquisition in STI Enterprises which includes a factory at the Mactan Economic Zone in Lapu-Lapu City, Cebu, Philippines.

Jabil

• launched InControl platform which provides visibility, collaboration tools and diagnostics for supply chain professionals.

• officially dropped ‘Circuit’ from its legal name.

Kitron opened a new facility in Jönköping, Sweden.

LCL Electronics promoted Judy Hatton to Operations Director.

Mack Technologies added a 3rd Jade Mk II selective soldering system.

NEW KINPO GROUP named Bijoy Kunnath, Deputy Manager.

NextFlex

• added a BTU International Pyramax 100A demo unit.

• installed a Meyer Burger PiXDRO

Printer, BTU International Pyramax high-throughput reflow oven, Universal Instruments Fusion SC1-07 and Nanotronics nSpec production equipment for its technology hub’s pilot manufacturing line.

Nortech Systems appointed Matt Mahmood, COO.

NSI Laser opened a laser machining job shop in Fremont, California.

OMEGA-EMS named Chris Alessio, President.

Orbit One installed an additional Fuji SMD line and automated coating-line at its newly expanded Gdansk, Poland factory.

PICA Product Development purchased a Mycronic MY600JX solder paste jet printer.

Plexus moved into a new office space in downtown Neenah, Wisconsin and opened a new Engineering Solutions Design Center in Guadalajara, Mexico.

Prism Electronics achieved ISO9001:2015 and ISO14001:2015 international standards certifications.

Qualitel deployed Aegis’ FactoryLogix manufacturing execution software at their Everett, WA facility.

Quanta Computer set up a business unit for R&D of electronics used in medical care.

Samsung and Fair Electronics opened an electronics plant in Narsingdi, India that has the annual capacity to produce 400,000 refrigerators, 250,000 microwave ovens, 120,000 air-conditioners, 200,000 TVs and 50,000 washing machines.

Scanfil Vellinge installed SIPLACE SX2-Serie pick and place equipment in Sweden.

Scorpion Automotive added a Yamaha Z:LEX YSM20 pick and place mounter.

SMS installed Mycronic MY600 Jet Printer and MY200SX Placement equipment.

Speedboard Assembly Services achieved ISO 9001:2015 certification.

Sung Ha Telecom set up a mobile phone manufacturing unit in Chhattisgarh, India.

VirTex promoted Gary Heimlich to Materials Manager.

Wistron completed a trial run of the first-ever Apple iPhones assembled in India.

PCB Fabrication

American Standard Circuits received MIL-PRF-50884F Mil Spec for flex and rigid flex circuits.

AT&S Supervisory Board appointed Monika Stoisser-Göhring to succeed Karl Asamer as CFO.

Cistelaier and Techci Rhône-Alpes added a Pluritec Inspecta Combo HPL X-Ray drilling system, Multistation EVO S drilling system and C2 routing machine.

Compunetics acquired Circuits, LLC.

Daeduck Electronics bought 1.8 million shares in Daeduck GDS.

Elco-Group acquired V-ps –Vermeulen Print Service.

Elmatica created open standard for communicating information for PCB fabrication.

Eltek named Kathy Nargi-Toth, President of Eltek USA.

Green Circuits installed Vi TECHNOLOGY’s Spectro Series AOI, PI Series SPI, and SigmaLink process management software.

GUH Holdings added new PCB production lines in Bayan Lepas, Malaysia to meet rising demand from the major domestic appliance and automotive sectors.

Lone Star Circuits promoted Lance Riley to President.

PNE PCB is upgrading its manufacturing facilities in Tebrau, Johor, and Dong Guan City, China.

Servatron secured additional 13,000 SF of space to accommodate growth; expects to reach $30 million in sales by the end of 2018.

Sierra Proto added a Luther & Maelzer S2-16DS flying probe test system.

Summit Interconnect appointed Doug Scrimes, VP and GM of Anaheim Division.

Materials & Process Equipment

Conductive inks market is forecast to grow at 3% CAGR through 2021. –Research and Markets

Electrically conductive coatings market is projected to grow at nearly 8% CAGR to USD 19.3 billion by 2021. –Technavio Research

Epoxy composite market revenue is expected to expand at 7.4% CAGR to about USD 38 billion by 2023. –Market Research Future

Glass fiber market is forecast to grow at 4.8% CAGR to $9.4 billion by 2022. –Lucintel

Photoresist and photoresist ancillaries market is expected to reach $6 billion by 2024. –Global Market Insights

Polyimide films market is estimated to grow at 10% CAGR from USD 1.52 billion in 2017 to USD 2.45 billion by 2022. –Markets and Markets

Silver nanowire market is projected to grow at 6.2% CAGR to $410 million by 2021. –IndustryARC

SMT equipment market value will grow at 4.4% CAGR from US$4.8 billion in 2016 to US$7.1 billion by 2025. –Transparency Market Research

Thermal management market is forecast to grow at 7.9% CAGR to $14 billion by 2022. –Markets and Markets

Underfill dispenser market is poised to grow at 9.4% CAGR to $95 billion by 2025. –Research and Markets

Asahi Denka Laboratory commercialized transparent flexible laminates with high heat resistance for transparent flexible circuits.

Dow Chemical

• moved its silicones, sealants and adhesives plant from Greensboro, North Carolina, to its Midland, Michigan manufacturing site.

• and DuPont merger attained U.S. antitrust approval with conditions.

Electrolube India received ISO 9001-2015 certification.

Fuji Machine Manufacturing acquired Tower-Factory.

Hexion appointed former Chemtura CEO, Craig Rogerson to replace retired Craig Morrison as CEO.

Hitachi High Technologies introduced new hybrid ion mill system “ArBrade 5000” with high throughput for analytical process of electronic materials.

Huntsman and Clariant entered merger of equals.

Indium hired Joshua Wake as Associate Controller.

IPTE Factory Automation is celebrating its 25th anniversary.

ITEQ named Richard Pangier, VP, North America Sales, Luc Beauvillier, Sr Director of OEM Marketing North America and Europe and Michael Miller, Global Director of Technology.

Koh Young

• Singapore relocated its Singapore office to Pasir Panjang, Singapore.

• Technology is celebrating 15 years of operation.

Kurtz Ersa North America appointed Luis Lujan, District Sales Manager for Ersa Machines Division in Maquiladora Territory in Mexico.

KYZEN relocated to 1,230 SM facility in Aalter, Belgium.

Lackwerke Peters, Peters Research and Peters Engineering successfully passed a re-certification audit according to DIN EN ISO 9001:2008.

Linde Board agreed to $35 billion merger with Praxair.

Matrix promoted Robert Berg to VP of Sales and Business Development.

Microtek Laboratories China completed first qualification test program for IPC-4101D validation services.

Nordson EFD opened a sales office in Poland.

Park Electrochemical appointed John Jamieson, President of Neltec, Business Unit.

PPG sold its remaining fiberglass operations to Nippon Electric Glass.

Shengyi Technology obtained UL listing for FR-4 grade S1190M with RTI of 150 Degrees C.

SmtXtra received ISO 9001:2015 certification.

Taiwan Flex commercialized a new heat resistant flexible circuit using transparent polyimide film and cover resin for LED modules.

Taiwan Union Technology Corporation became the first base material manufacturer worldwide to be IPC Validation Services QPL certified to IPC-4101E.

Ventec International added cutting equipment for copper foil for Class 10,000 (ISO 7) clean-room environment in its UK facility.

Yaskawa expanded its manufacturing base in Torsås, Sweden by 2,000 SM.

YINCAE developed a new innovative solder joint encapsulant paste designed to be used for mass production via dispensing or printing.

Components

SEMICONDUCTORS

Worldwide semiconductor market is forecast to increase 11.5% y/y to US$ 378 billion in 2017. –WSTS

Worldwide semiconductor revenue grew 2.6% to $343 billion in 2016. –Gartner

Fab materials market is projected to grow at nearly 7% CAGR to USD 31.7 billion by 2021. –Technavio

Semiconductor manufacturing equipment billings increased 14% y/y to US$13.1 billion in 1Q’17. –SEMI

Semiconductor equipment spending is expected to reach US$49 billion in 2017 and $54 billion in 2018. –SEMI

Semiconductor photolithography equipment market will grow at 9.2% CAGR during 2017-2021. –HTF Market Intelligence

Silicon wafer area shipments increased 12.6% y/y to 2,858 million square inches in 1Q’17. –SEMI

Silicon reclaim wafer market is estimated to grow from $431 million in 2016 to $454 million by 2018. –SEMI

China’s IC industry overall output value rose 19.5% y/y to US$13.9 billion in 1Q’17 while Taiwan’s IC industry grew by a smaller 5% y/y to US$18.3 billion. –CSIA and TSIA

European semiconductor distribution market increased 10.5% y/y to 2.13 billion Euro in Q1/CY17. –DMASS

North America fab equipment market is expected to increase about 20% y/y in 2017 and another 8% in 2018. –SEMI

Taiwan semiconductor production value will grow 3.2% y/y to US$77 billion in 2017. –MIC

Handset baseband processor market grew 5% y/y to US$22.3 billion in 2016. –Strategy Analytics

Industrial chip market increased about 4% y/y to $42.2 billion in 2016. –Semicast Research

Integrated passive devices market is expected to reach USD 2.6 billion by 2025. –Grand View Research

IoT semiconductors sales projection was lowered to growth of 16.2% y/y to $21.3 billion in 2017 by IC Insights.

MEMS market will grow at 9.8% CAGR to $19 billion by 2022. –ReportsnReports

MEMS microphones & ECMs, micro-speakers and audio ICs market will collectively be worth US$20 billion in 2022. –Yole Développement

RFID market will grow at 7.7% CAGR to 31.4 billion USD by 2023. – Markets and Markets

AUTOMOBILE

Automobile semiconductors costs per vehicle are expected to increase from US$565 in 2016 to US$610 by 2018, with automotive chipset market expanding at 4.9% CAGR from 2015 through 2020. –Strategy Analytics

Automotive ECU market will surpass $50 billion by 2023. –Global Market Insights

Automotive IC market is expected to grow 22% y/y to $28 billion in 2017. –IC Insights

Automotive LiDAR revenues are forecast to reach around US$13 billion by 2027. –ABI Research

Automotive touch screen shipments will grow 11% y/y to 50 million units in 2017. –IHS Markit

Analog ICs and power transistors for power management average value will increase of 11% y/y from US$188 in 2016 to US$209 per vehicle in 2017. –TrendForce

COMPONENTS

German component distribution market grew 6.3% to €907 million during 1Q’17; orders jumped 20% to over €1 billion; book/bill was 1.11. –FBDi

CAPACITORS

North America capacitor sales increased 0.5% q/q to 34.8 billion units worth $322 million in 1Q’17. –ECIA

CONNECTORS

Connector industry sales grew 10.8% y/y to $14 billion in 1Q’17 while orders booked increased 15.2% y/y to $14.6 billion. –Bishop & Associates

SENSORS

Sensor sales grew 14% in 2016 to a record US$7.3 billion and actuator sales climbed 19% in 2016 to US$4.5 billion. –IC Insights

Sensor market for smart homes and buildings will be worth US$1.7 billion by 2022. –Yole Développement

Optical sensing market is projected to grow at 15.5% CAGR from USD 1.1 billion in 2016 to USD 3.5 billion by 2023. –MarketsandMarkets

Wireless sensor network market will grow at 18.6% CAGR from USD 29 billion in 2016 to USD 94 billion by 2023. –MarketsandMarkets

DISPLAYS, PANELS, MONITORS

AMOLED shipments are forecast to increase from 370 million units in 2016 to 452 million in 2017 and 1.1 billion in 2021. –Digitimes Research

AMOLED TV panel shipments are expected to grow at 42% CAGR to over 10 million units by 2023. –IHS Markit

TV panel shipments slipped 9.4% y/y to 57.8 million in 2Q’17. –Sigmaintell

China TV panel self-sufficiency will reach 85% in 2017. –China Star Optoelectronics Technology

China-based panel makers ordered TFT-LCD and OLED production equipment worth a total value of US$ 2 billion in 1Q’17. –KDIA

China’s AMOLED smartphone panel shipments will increase to 3.53 million units in 2018, compared to 2.43 million units in 2016. –Digitimes Research

MEMORY AND STORAGE

Memory shipments and increased memory pricing are driving a semiconductor boom that is expected to see 16% y/y growth in 2017 followed by 7% expansion in 2018. –Semiconductor Intelligence

DRAM sales reached a record high of $14.1 billion in 1Q’17, driven by a roughly 30% increase in the average contract price of PC DRAM modules. –DRAMeXchange

DRAM shortage started about mid-year 2016 and should go to mid-year 2018; average selling prices should begin to fall in the second half of the year. –IC Insights

Mobile DRAM sales dropped by 1.7% q/q to US$5.41 billion in 1Q’17. –DRAMeXchange

Enterprise-grade SSDs shipments grew by 3~4% q/q in 1Q’17 to 6 million units. –TrendForce

Printed, Flexible and Organic Electronics

Printed electronics market is expected to grow from $67 billion in 2015 to more than $108 billion in 2020. –Smithers Pira 

 

View the full article in Global SMT & Packaging July issue. http://digital.trafalgarmedia.com/h/c/1203-global-smt-packaging

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