2018 & 2019 Prognostications

WALT CUSTER AND JOHN CUSTER-TOPAI

CUSTER and CUSTER

Charts 1 and 2 summarize recent forecasts for 2018 & 2019 global growth of GDP (World Bank), electronic equipment (Custer Consulting Group), printed circuit boards (Custer Consulting Group), semiconductors (SIA/WSTS) and semiconductor capital equipment (SEMI). Caution should prevail as the global economy remains unstable. Trade tensions and general geopolitical unrest are rampant.

Electronic equipment shipments through June showed the beginnings of their normal upturn leading to the “fall busy season” in Asia. U.S. sales are also growing but Europe is rather flat (Chart 3).

The semiconductor industry remains hot (Chart 4) however Taiwan-listed wafer fabs (a leading indicator of global chip shipments) cooled in June (Chart 5). It remains to be seen if their June decline was a 1-month dip or a prediction of slower semiconductor growth ahead.

Semiconductor capital equipment (Chart 6) overshadowed the rest of the electronic supply chain – up 37% in 2018 and projected to grow another 11% this year. China’s chip ramp up is the big driver.

Printed circuit boards (Chart 7) are soon to begin their normal late summer-to-autumn seasonal climb. PCBs currently appear to be on target for mid 6% global growth (in U.S. dollars and still aided by favorable exchange rate conversions from stronger non-dollar currencies).

It does appear that world electronic supply chain growth is moderating. 2018 will be positive but clouds are hovering over 2019.

Keep watching. The global landscape is certainly in flux.

End Markets

Computers & Peripherals

PC shipments increased 1.4% y/y to 62.1 million units in 2Q18. –Gartner
PCs, tablets and mobile phones device shipments are on pace to record 0.9% growth to reach 2.28 billion units in 2018. –Gartner
India’s external storage market grew 12.7% y/y (by vendor revenues) to US$84.1 million in 1Q18. –IDC

Network Equipment

Traditional hardware, software, services, and telecommunications spending is on course for growth of 3.7% y/y to $4 trillion in 2018. –IDC

Internet of Things

Technology spending on the Internet of Things will expand at 13.6% CAGR to $1.2 trillion in 2022. –IDC

Robots/Automation

Robotics industry investment grew 23.2% y/y to US$2.7 billion in 2017. –ABI Research
Articulated robot market value is projected to expand at over 14% CAGR from US$ 6 billion in 2016 to USD 23 billion by 2026.
–Transparency Market Research
Commercial robotics market is forecast to grow at 23% CAGR from 6.2 billion USD in 2017 to 21.6 billion USD by 2023. –Research and Markets
Industrial robots sales climbed 29% y/y to 380,550 robots in 2017. –International Federation of Robotics
Industrial robotics market is estimated to grow at 4.4% CAGR from $11billion in 2017 to $14.5 billion by 2023. –IndustryARC

Consumer Electronics

Consumer electronics market is predicted to surpass USD 1.5 trillion by 2024. –Global Market Insights
China’s wearable device imports grew 15.9% y/y to 12 million devices in 1Q18. –IDC

Automotive

Batteries & Energy Storage

Automotive battery market is expected to grow at 7.9% CAGR to USD 96 billion by 2025. –Million Insights
Lithium-Ion batteries demand will increase 18% annually to $46 billion in 2022, expanding to 40% of total sales –The Freedonia Group

Electric Vehicles

Global market share of EV’s is expected to reach 5% by 2020 and 8-9% in 2023. –EnergyTrend
China produced 794,000 new energy vehicles and sold 777,000 units in 2017. –China Association of Automobile Manufacturers
France registered more than 25,000 plug-in electric cars in 1H’18.
–Avere-France
Netherlands plug-in electric car sales reached 2,309 units in June.
–EV Sales Blog
Sweden plug-in electric car sales grew 69% y/y to 2,749 units in June, reaching 6% of total automobile market share. –EV Sales Blog
U.S. plug-in electric car sales rose to 25,400 vehicles in June 2018, compared to last year’s 17,046. –InsideEVs
UK plug-in electric car sales reached 6,272 in June, reaching 2.67% market share. –InsideEVs

Electronics

Global automotive electronics market is estimated to be valued more than USD 290 billion by 2024. –Hexa Research

Market

Brazil’s total vehicle production increased 20.7% m/m to 256,305 units in June. –ANFAVEA
Philippines car sector sales dropped by 9.7% y/y from January to May to 35,931 vehicles. –Association of Vehicle Importers and Distributors
Taiwan’s car sales fell 5.5% y/y to 37,889 units in June.
Uzbekistan increased the production of passenger cars by 18.4% to 78,030 units in January-June 2018.

Printed Circuit Boards

Automotive PCB production was around $6.4-6.5 billion in 2017, averaging about $60-70 per car for a total of 97 million cars.
–Dr. Hayao Nakahara

Security

Transportation security technology market value is forecast to grow at 8% CAGR from $33 billion in 2017 to $61 billion by 2025.
–Allied Market Research

Telematics

Connected car market is expected to grow at 31% CAGR to $256 billion. –Research and Markets

EMS, ODM & Related
Assembly Activity

EMS and ODM market value will grow at 4.7% CAGR from US$509 billion to $737 billion by 2025. –WiseGuyReport

Asteelflash invested in new SMT lines for Tijuana, Mexico factory.

AWS Electronics

achieved AS9100 Revision D accreditation.
appointed Amelia Godwin as Group Quotations Manager.

Axiom Manufacturing Services added Fuji AIMEX III equipment to its core SMT line in Newbridge, UK.

BMK invested in 10th SMT high-performance line in Augsburg, Germany.

Bomin Electronics acquired Juntian Hengxun.

Camtronics completed a management buyout with the support of a £400,000 loan from the Development Bank of Wales.

Circuitronics

added new SMT Line dedicated to quick turn and prototyping, which includes a MPM printer, Juki placement equipment and a Vitronics Soltec reflow oven.
appointed Tim Harmon to VP of Operations.

Contract Production Ltd added a new AM100 Panasonic Pick and Place line.

Enics elected Walter Ahlström, Lasse Heinonen and Hannu Martola as new members of the Board of Directors.

Flextronics set up manufacturing facility in Andhra Pradesh.

Foxconn/ Hon Hai

acquired 3.1% stake in Vizio for $25 million.
established its North American corporate headquarters in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
formed a logistics JV in South China with Siam Cement, which focuses on high-tech electronics, premium foods, and e-commerce.
is voluntarily adopting a leading-edge water recycling system at the Wisconn Valley Science and Technology Park in Racine County, Wisconsin.

Hindley Circuits acquired Irridian Industrial Electronics.

HMD Engineering invested in the new Pillarhouse “Pilot” selective soldering system in Nieuw-Vennep, Netherlands.

Incap Corporation appointed Otto Pukk as interim CEO.

Intex Technologies created a new facility in Greater Noida where it will make a mix of products including mobile phones and consumer durables (LED TV and refrigerator).

Lacon Electronic added an AOI TR7500QE from Test Research, Inc.

Libra Industries promoted Charles Swanson to Sr. Test/Manufacturing/Quality Engineer and Jim Zelina to Program Manager.

New Kinpo Group (NKG) is building two new manufacturing facilities in the Philippines.

NexLogic Technologies added a Mycronic’s MY200SX-14 pick and place machine.

Northeastern Electronics spent $2.5 million to build 18,000 SF addition to company’s manufacturing facility in Elbridge, New York.

Ryder Industries EMS launched an Electronic Digital Interchange (EDI) platform.

Sanmina achieved AS9100D certification at its Costa Mesa Technology Center.

Wistron started commercial production of the iPhone 6s at its Bengaluru facility in India.

Yxlon began offering Non-Destructive Test (NDT) contract services at its Comet’s Lab One facility in San Jose, California, and Yxlon’s Non-Destructive Testing facility in Hudson, Ohio.

Z-AXIS named Steve Kelly, Director of Business Development.

PCB Fabrication

Global PCB board industry’s output value is expected to reach $76 billion by 2022. –Prismark

China’s PCB global market share grew at 6.45% CAGR from 31% with an output value US$15 billion in 2008 to 50.8% to US$28 billion in 2017. –Zhongcai Net

Actia Electronics invested $18.5 million to buy a 50,000 SF production and R&D facility in Romulus, Michigan.

Atotech sold 5.5-acre site near the Port of Baltimore’s Fairfield operations to local investment group for $1.6 million.

Chongda Technology acquired 20% stake in Shenzhen Sandeguan Precision Circuit Technology.

Cirexx International completed an upgrade to their MIL-PRF-31032 certifications and achieved AS9100D standard certifications.

Elmatica established a permanent and dedicated team in South Africa, due to a high demand for printed circuits.

Eltek named Eli Yaffe, CEO.

Enigma Interconnect celebrated 45 Years in PCB Manufacturing.

Graphic celebrated 50th anniversary.

Guangdong Junya acquired equity in Makita Circuit.

Helitai Technology increased its FPC production capacity from 150,000 SM to 300,000 SM in Xinfeng, China and from 50,000 SM to 100,000 SM of capacity in Wanan.

Jiangxi Yinghui Dacheng Electronic Technology invested 1 billion yuan to establish a FPC project in Penggao Industrial Park, Shangli County.

Merlin Circuit Technology added a second Schmoll MDI system.

OSI Electronics installed a new Nordson Dage Quadra 5 x-ray system inspection unit at its St Neots factory.

Prototron Circuits Redmond, Washington achieved ISO 9001–2015.

SCL PCB Solutions Group merged its subsidiaries Ragworm and Stickleback into Spirit Circuits.

Shenzhen Shanxu Electronics established a multilayer high density PCB project in China’s Jishui County, Ji’an City, Jiangxi Province.

Materials & Process Equipment

Glass fiber market is forecast to grow at 3.9% CAGR to $9.4 billion by 2023. –Lucintel

Machine vision systems market will grow at 7.6% CAGR from $7.9 billion in 2017 to $12 billion by 2023. –Research and Markets

Printed electronics materials market is value is expected to expand at 29% CAGR to $54 billion by 2023. –IndustryARC

Co-tech Development monthly higher-quality copper foil production capacity increased to 1,750 metric tons in 2H18.

Doosan is adding a battery copper foil plant with annual production capacity of 50,000 tons in Tatabanya Industrial Park in Hungary.

Indium Corporation welcomes Carolyn Cardone as Assistant Plant Manager.

Kurtz Ersa expanded their demo room to 3,000 SF in Plymouth, Wisconsin.

LCY Technology began trading on the mainboard of the Taiwan Stock Exchange.

Manz named Manfred Hochleitner, CFO.

Murray Percival appointed Mike Leeds as Business Development Manager for Southern Ohio, Kentucky and Southern Indiana.

Panasonic launched its new South African HQ in Century City, Cape Town.

Rogers Corporation acquired Griswold.

SEICA inaugurated its North American HQ in Haverhill, Massachusetts.

Shengyi Technology’s high-frequency copper clad facility at its Songshan Lake Plant launched the first intelligent manufacturing production line.

Ventec International Group appointed Peter Coakley as Sales Director UK.

VJ Electronix

appointed Jeremy Zhou to China Regional Sales Manager.
promoted Frank Cosentino to Western Regional Sales Manager for the Americas and Robert Kerwin to Eastern Regional Sales Manager for the Americas.

Components

Semiconductors

Semiconductor industry revenues grew 21.6% y/y to US$115.8 billion in 1Q18. –IHS Markit
Semiconductor production equipment market value is expected to expand at 8.8% CAGR to US$8 billion by 2026 as volume grows by over 6.6% CAGR to 130 thousand units.
–Transparency Market Research
New semiconductor manufacturing equipment sales are projected to increase 10.8% y/y to $62.7 billion in 2018. –SEMI
North American semiconductor equipment industry billings increased 19.2% y/y to $2.70 billion in May 2018 (3-month average basis). –SEMI
South Korea’s semiconductor exports are projected to increase 28% y/y to US$125 billion in 2018 on robust demand for memory chips.
–Korea International Trade Association

China’s

annual IC production value is estimated to expand 28.8% y/y to US$27.6 billion in 2018.
–Digitimes Research
semiconductor firms plan to spend $11 billion in capex this year, up from only $2.2 billion in 2015 and representing 10.6% of the expected worldwide outlays of $104 billion. –IC Insights
Extreme ultraviolet lithography market is expected to grow at 28% CAGR from USD 3 billion in 2018 to USD 10 billion by 2023.
–MarketsandMarkets

Gallium

arsenide wafers market will grow at 11.5% CAGR to $1.3 billion by 2023. –Research and Markets
nitride semiconductor devices market size will reach $4.37 billion by 2025. –Grand View Research

Sensors

Organic CMOS image sensor market value is expected to grow at 21% CAGR from $696 million in 2020 to $1.8 billion by 2025.
–Allied Market Research

Displays, Panels, Monitors

LED display screen sales market value will grow at 4.6% CAGR from 7.4 billion in US$ in 2017 to 10.6 billion US$ by year end 2025.
–QY Research
OLED panel market will expand 15.5% y/y to US$27 billion in 2018. –Display Supply Chain Consultants

Memory and Storage

Memory

market will grow 40% y/y to US$177 billion in 2018. –Yole Développement
module market is expected to expand at 3.7% CAGR from 9.3 billion USD in 2017 to 11.6 billion USD in 2023. –Market Research Reports
DRAM revenue surged to an all-time high of US$23 billion in 1Q18.
–TrendForce
Supercapacitors market is expected to grow at 19.8% CAGR from US$ 900 million in 2018 to US$ 5.5 billion by 2028. –Future Market Insights

Printed, Flexible and
Organic Electronics

Printed electronics market is growing at 26% CAGR from $3.3 million in 2016 to $16 million by 2023.
–ResearchAndMarkets.com
Thin and ultra-thin films market value will grow at 15% CAGR from US$33 billion in 2015 to US$115 billion by 2024.
–Transparency Market Research

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